As you know, the conflict in the Middle East is already affecting oil markets and shipping routes, and that is beginning to impact New Zealand businesses through multiple avenues. To name a few, clients are already seeing rising fuel costs, freight, supplier pricing, delivery delays, travel, cash flow, and customer uncertainty with orders.
I wanted to write to you directly because times like this can create more confusion than clarity.
Please read this knowing it is my opinion, offered as practical guidance to help you think clearly about the months ahead. Take what is useful, leave what is not, and feel free to share it with your business colleagues if it may help them too.
Key Takeaways
- The fuel supply may remain stable, but many businesses could still feel pressure through freight costs, supplier pricing, delivery delays, cash flow, and tighter margins.
- The best response is not panic. It is calm, early planning and a clear focus on what you can control.
- Now is the time to review your exposure, speak with suppliers and your bank, and make deliberate decisions about pricing and cost recovery.
- A practical contingency plan can reduce both business risk and mental load, helping you respond with more confidence if conditions change.
- Your leadership matters. Clear communication, steady decision-making, and perspective will help your business and your people stay grounded.
- You do not need to predict every outcome. You simply need enough clarity, preparation, and flexibility to keep making good decisions as conditions evolve.
Table of Contents
- What This Conflict Could Mean for Your Business
- What We Know Today
- Understanding the Government’s Fuel Response Phases
- Five Practical Actions to Strengthen Business Resilience
- Build A Contingency Plan Now — And Let It Carry Some of the Weight
- Pricing and Surcharges
- Caring For Your People
- What COVID Taught Us — And How to Apply Those Lessons Now
- What Is Your State of Mind?
- Final Thought
What This Conflict Could Mean for Your Business
Even if your business is not especially fuel-intensive, you may still feel the effects indirectly.
You might see higher freight costs, supplier increases, longer lead times, tighter cash flow, or customers taking longer to commit. For some businesses, the impact will be immediate. For others, it will appear more gradually, through lower margins or more difficult pricing conversations and reduced sales.
The important thing is to identify where pressure could show up before it becomes a problem.
What We Know Today
At the time of writing, the Government’s public guidance is that fuel supplies remain stable and the market continues to operate normally. MBIE is publishing regular updates, and the current public position aligns with Phase 1 – Watchful.
If the conflict continues or worsens, the commercial effects may broaden. That is exactly why planning now matters.
Helpful links:
Understanding the Government’s Fuel Response Phases
The Government’s 2026 Fuel Response Plan sets out four phases so that action can be taken proportionately rather than reactively.
Phase 1 – Watchful
Fuel is available nationwide, and the market is operating normally, but prices are rising. In practical terms, this means businesses should continue operating as usual while actively planning for higher input costs.
Phase 2 – Precautionary
Fuel would still be available, but signs of a significant supply disruption would emerge. In practice, this would likely mean a stronger focus on conservation, tighter coordination between the Government and industry, and greater pressure on businesses to reduce non-essential fuel use.
Phase 3 – Managed
Supply would be tighter, and Government powers could be used to prioritise fuel for critical services and important supply chains. This is where daily operating habits could begin to change more noticeably, including the introduction of purchasing limits or priority access rules.
Phase 4 – Protected
This would apply in a larger or sustained disruption, where formal rules would be used to direct how fuel is distributed. In day-to-day terms, this would mean a much more managed environment, with essential services protected first and everyone else operating within tighter limits.
The key message is: We are not currently in a shortage environment, but it is sensible to prepare now so that any escalation is managed from a position of clarity rather than urgency.
Five Practical Actions to Strengthen Business Resilience
1. Measure your real exposure
Look beyond fuel alone. Consider freight, supplier pricing, stock availability, travel, lead times, customer demand, what’s the flow on effect behind clients’ customers that may be a delayed response and your working capital.
Ask yourself where pressure is most likely to appear in your costs, service levels, margins, and cash flow. Also consider what may affect your customers and suppliers, because those pressures often flow back into your business as well.
2. Review supplier, freight, and stock arrangements early
Have the conversations now, not later.
Ask what cost changes, delays, or availability issues they can already see. For some businesses, ordering earlier or carrying a little more stock may reduce risk. For others, that may place too much pressure on cash. The right response will depend on your margins, storage capacity, product type, and cash position. Short-term cash loans, with the cost of interest, may be way lower than losing work and poor service because you have run out of materials.
3. Talk to your bank early
If there is any chance you may need more headroom, it is better to have that conversation while the business is still in a strong position.
Even if you never use an extended overdraft or temporary facility, knowing it is available can give you flexibility and peace of mind if conditions tighten.
4. Review pricing and cost recovery deliberately
Do not assume every increase must be absorbed, but do not rush into a blanket price rise either.
Look at where freight, delivery, travel, or supply costs are genuinely changing your cost to serve. In some cases, a pricing update will make sense. In others, a specific temporary charge may be more appropriate. The key is to be deliberate, transparent, and commercially sensible.
5. Set a review rhythm
Try not to make decisions based on every headline. Instead, set a weekly or fortnightly review point for fuel, freight, supplier costs, deliveries, gross margin, and cash flow.
A steady review rhythm usually leads to better decisions than reacting in real time to every change.
Helpful links:
- EECA – Fuel-Efficient Tips for Work Vehicles and Fleets
- EECA – Benefits of Electric Work Vehicles
- Fuel Excise Duty Refund Information
Build A Contingency Plan Now — And Let It Carry Some of the Weight
A contingency plan or risk register should not be a document that sits in a drawer. It should be a working decision tool.
It should identify your most exposed areas, key people, backup options, and the cash-flow triggers that require action. It should also make clear who decides what, when the business will review conditions, and what would trigger the next step.
One of the biggest benefits of doing this well is not only operational. It is mental. A practical plan reduces uncertainty, lowers stress, and helps people move forward with more confidence.
If you would like a complimentary risk register, please contact us at [email protected], and we’ll work through it with you. If you are unsure about what could be on your risk register, contact us, and we’ll assist you. An example could be working from home. How does that work for you if you are a building company? What are some other options, electric cars for on-site, car-pooling etc.
Helpful links:
- Business continuity and contingency planning
- Emergency planning for businesses
- Healthy business checklist and BCP steps
- WorkSafe fatigue guidance
Pricing and Surcharges
Pricing is likely to be one of the more important decisions in the months ahead.
The real question is not simply whether to increase prices. It is whether you absorb the extra cost, pass some of it on, or adjust how you deliver value. In many cases, a targeted approach is better than a blunt across-the-board increase.
If you are considering a surcharge, it can sometimes be appropriate, but it should be used carefully. Keep it specific, transparent, tied to a real cost increase, and reviewed regularly. In many cases, the cleaner long-term option is to refresh pricing, quoting, and service settings rather than rely on a broad surcharge indefinitely.
If you have a drop in sales and reduced margins, we have a useful resource on the Ansoff Matrix (linked below) that may help prompt some rethinking about your target market, and we are also happy to work through this with you in a focused strategy session.
Helpful links:
- The Ansoff Matrix: Strategies for Business Growth – Accounting Solutions Ltd
- Pricing your products or services | Commerce Commission
- Commerce Commission – Surcharging Guidance
Caring For Your People
During uncertain periods, staff often take their cues from leadership.
If leadership is calm, clear, and steady, that usually gives employees more confidence. That does not mean pretending everything is easy. It means being honest about what is known, communicating clearly, and showing that the business is thinking ahead rather than being pushed around by events.
For eligible households, the Government has introduced temporary fuel-cost relief through the in-work tax credit. It may be worth reminding staff to check whether their household could qualify and how the support applies to them.
There are also practical and deliberate ways to support people:
- Practical wellbeing resources or online learning
- Leadership support or mentoring
- Podcasts, books, or short courses that help people manage stress and build resilience
- Massage, exercise, or wellbeing allowances where appropriate
- Healthy shared meals
- Low-pressure team events
- Regular check-ins and a stronger sense of connection across the team
The aim is not to add another programme for the sake of it. It is to support the habits and environment that help people stay steady.
A note on flexibility, structure, and practical support:
This is an area that needs careful judgment.
For some businesses, especially while conditions remain aligned with Phase 1 – Watchful, it may be worth reviewing whether current working arrangements are still the best fit for long-term stability, collaboration, and team wellbeing. In some cases, a steadier in-office rhythm can support structure, connection, and calmer day-to-day operations.
When commuting costs are the more immediate concern, some employers may prefer to offer targeted support, such as temporary fuel vouchers, travel assistance, or similar practical assistance, rather than make broader changes to work arrangements.
Helpful links:
What COVID Taught Us – And How to Apply Those Lessons Now
This situation is different from COVID, but it is another reminder that uncertainty can arrive quickly and that businesses with strong fundamentals usually cope better.
The businesses that came through COVID best generally shared a few traits:
- They changed their customer terms of trade
- They monitored cash flow closely
- They communicated early and clearly with customers and the team
- They had alternative ways to operate
- They reviewed assumptions regularly
- They either bulk-supplied with long payment supplier terms, worked with the bank to fund this or did stock on consignment
- They altered their prices where they could, while also looking after their clients
- They looked after their own well-being first, and then of their team
- They rallied their team back to business as usual ASAP, and this gave stability and normalised life.
Those lessons still apply now.
The goal is not to predict every possible outcome. The goal is to build enough resilience to continue making good decisions across different scenarios.
One practical way to test decisions is this: Will this still look like a sensible decision 12 months from now? What about 5 years from now? If the answer is no, it may be a reaction rather than a strategy.
This is a time to widen the lens, not narrow it. Businesses that separate themselves from the noise, protect liquidity, communicate well, and plan deliberately tend to preserve far more long-term value than those making hurried decisions in response to uncertainty.
What Is Your State of Mind?
This may be the most important question of all.
When uncertainty builds, business owners can end up carrying too much in their heads at once. That can lead to rushed decisions, poorer communication, and unnecessary exhaustion. A few simple disciplines can help. Do the contingency plan or risk register early, reduce headline-checking, keep a regular decision rhythm, protect time away from devices, and speak with advisers and peers who help you keep perspective.
In my experience, when the owner or leadership team becomes calmer and clearer, the rest of the business usually follows. Take some long weekends and switch off. Decision-making becomes much easier after a break.
Final Thought
You do not need to predict every possible outcome. You simply need enough clarity, enough preparation, and enough flexibility to keep making good decisions as conditions change.
If rising fuel prices are materially affecting your business, you can provide feedback directly to MBIE here: MBIE – Feedback Form
If you would like support reviewing pricing, updating cash flow forecasts, stress-testing margins, or building a practical contingency plan for the months ahead, please call 03 374 9393 or email [email protected], and we’ll work through your questions with you.
This is the kind of period where measured planning can make a significant difference — not only to business performance, but to your peace of mind.
Focus on what you can control and prepare early.
Warmest Regards
Louise Neville and the team at Accounting Solutions.